deformed-offering

Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground
Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center

 

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Current Pacific Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231155
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images, reconnaissance data and surface observations
indicate that the remmants of Harvey are close to redeveloping into
a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 150
miles west of Merida, Mexico. Advisories will likely be re-initiated
at 10 am CDT on this system. The low is forecast to move to the
northwest at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico,
possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday. This
system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing
the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding
across portions of Texas and Louisiana into early next week. Harvey
could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force
winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required later today
for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
southwestern Louisiana.  Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system and refer to products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching across
the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated
with a trough of low pressure.  Any development of this system
during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts
northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or
subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to
move northeastward over the western Atlantic.  Regardless of
development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions
of the Florida peninsula during the next few days.  Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 23 Aug 2017 13:00:13 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231139
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1500 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

...KENNETH DETERIORATING QUICKLY...
 As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 23
 the center of Kenneth was located near 23.5, -134.3
 with movement NNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 20

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 230834
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...KENNETH DETERIORATING QUICKLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 134.3W
ABOUT 1545 MI...2490 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 134.3 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is
expected to become a remnant low tonight or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2017  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230834
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017
0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 134.3W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 134.3W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 134.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.8N 135.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.4N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.6N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.4N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.4N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 134.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230835
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Conventional satellite imagery shows continued deterioration of
Kenneth's cloud pattern.  A moderate southwesterly wind shear regime
and oceanic temperatures of less than 24.5C have certainly taken its
toll on the cyclone.  A compromise of the subjective and objective
intensity estimates is the basis of lowering the initial intensity
to 50 kt for this advisory.  The aforementioned shear and cool
water, along with a continued intruding stable air mass from
the north, should result in a gradual spin down of Kenneth with
weakening to a remnant low in about 24 hours, and dissipation in 5
days.  The official intensity forecast follows the IVCN and
Decay-SHIPS models, and reflects the previous advisory's weakening
trend.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or
340/9 kt.  Kenneth should continue to move north-northwestward
during the next 36-48 hours in a break in a subtropical ridge
created by a high amplitude upper-level trough extending
northeastward from the eastern Hawaiian Islands.  Afterward, the
cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a vertically shallow remnant
low and move within the lower tropospheric southeasterly flow.
There is some increasing spread in the global models beyond day 3.
The UKMET and GFS indicate a more accelerated rate of weakening than
the ECMWF.  Consequently, the weaker Kenneth reflected in the
UKMET/GFS decreases significantly in forward speed and turns
west-northwestward in the shallow steering current while a more
vertically coherent cyclone in the ECMWF continues northwestward
with little reduction in speed. The NHC track forecast is a blend of
both of these solutions and is very close to the HFIP Corrected
Consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 23.5N 134.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 24.8N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 26.4N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1800Z 27.6N 136.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0600Z 28.4N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0600Z 29.4N 137.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0600Z 30.4N 138.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2017                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 230834
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017               
0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 135W       34 70   7(77)   X(77)   X(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
25N 135W       50  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
30N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
30N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics

Tropical Storm Kenneth 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 08:40:27 GMT

Tropical Storm Kenneth 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 09:24:55 GMT

deformed-offering